The Hidden Housing Market Myth Costing San Jose Sellers
Timothy Alston | Broker
Aegis Luxury Real Estate · DRE# 01328224
Published
August 18, 2020
Capital of Silicon Valley
Sellers are quietly returning to the San Jose housing market after months of hesitation, and that shift creates a narrow window of opportunity. Inventory in Santa Clara County remains well below what a balanced market requires. Homes that do enter the market are selling faster than new listings can replace them. If you are waiting for the “right moment,” it may already be passing.
You know how it feels to watch a situation slowly change, but not be quite sure whether the moment to act has already come and gone? A lot of sellers in San Jose are sitting with that exact tension right now. They have been waiting, watching, wondering whether the market would swing in a direction that made sense for them. But here is the part most people have not stopped to think about yet: the advantage may not last as long as it looks.
So let’s slow down and look at this carefully, because the details matter for someone in your specific situation.
What Does the Housing Market Actually Look Like Right Now?
What does your current situation look like? Are you a homeowner who has been thinking about listing, but decided to wait until more sellers came back? Or are you a buyer who has been scouring the market, finding almost nothing in your price range?
The National Association of Realtors reported that total housing inventory sat at 1.57 million units, up 1.3% from the prior month, but still down 18.2% vs last year. To put that in plain terms: available inventory represents only a 4.0-month supply at the current pace of sales. A balanced housing market requires closer to 6 months of supply. That gap is not a small one.
Have you ever stopped to think about what it actually means when homes are selling faster than they are entering the market? It means buyers are competing hard for a shrinking pool of options. And it means sellers who list now face far less competition from other sellers.
Trend #1: Sellers Are Returning, But Inventory Remains Critically Low
After roughly five months of hesitation, sellers are returning to the housing market in measurable numbers. According to Javier Vivas, Director of Economic Research at realtor.com, seller confidence reached an important recovery milestone after bottoming out in mid-April. In San Jose, where buyer demand has consistently outpaced available homes, this shift is meaningful, but it is not yet enough to close the inventory gap. Homes in San Jose continue to sell at a pace that keeps supply stretched thin.
Trend #2: The Seller Confidence Index Reaches a Key Milestone
Realtor.com’s housing supply component, which tracks growth of new listings, climbed to 101.7, up nearly 5 points in a single week and reaching the January growth baseline for the first time since spring. That is not a dramatic surge. It is a steady, gradual rebuild of seller confidence. For the housing market to reach balance, this trend would need to continue and accelerate significantly. The current momentum is encouraging, but the road to adequate inventory remains long.
Trend #3: Low Competition Among Sellers Creates a Pricing Window
When sellers are few and buyers are many, the seller holds considerable leverage in negotiations. If you have been thinking about listing your home, consider what happens as more homeowners decide to act at the same time. Each additional listing gives buyers more options and subtly shifts negotiating power. Listing while competition among sellers is still relatively low positions your home to attract more focused buyer attention and stronger offers. How long that window stays open depends entirely on how quickly other homeowners decide to move.
Trend #4: Buyers Face a More Competitive Market, But Relief May Be Coming
For buyers navigating the current housing market, each new listing that appears represents a real opportunity. Historically low mortgage rates have kept buyer demand high, meaning competition for available homes has been intense. As more sellers return, buyers gain more chances to find a home that fits their needs without escalating into bidding wars on every offer. The improvement is gradual, and patience is still required, but the direction of the trend is one buyers have been waiting for. Exploring San Jose homes for sale now, while inventory begins to recover, may surface options that simply were not available a few months ago.
Trend #5: The Cost of Waiting Is Real, in Both Directions
What happens if nothing changes in your situation over the next two or three years? If you are a seller who keeps waiting, you risk listing into a more crowded market where buyers have more choices and more negotiating leverage. If you are a buyer who keeps waiting, you risk watching home equity accumulate for someone else while your monthly rent payments build nothing. The housing market does not pause while decisions are being made. Every month carries a quiet cost that rarely shows up on a bank statement but compounds over time.
What Would Change If You Acted Before the Rest of the Market Did?
Here is a question worth sitting with for a moment. If you knew that the window of low seller competition in the San Jose real estate market was going to close within the next few months, would that change how you are thinking about your timeline?
Most sellers assume they can wait until everything feels perfect. But the market does not wait. Vivas described the current seller confidence recovery as “only the first step in a long road,” which means the sellers who move early in that process are the ones listing into the strongest possible conditions. Does that make sense for where you are right now?
For buyers, the picture is slightly different but equally important. More listings entering the market means more opportunities to finally get into a home, especially if you have been pre-approved and ready to move quickly. The combination of rising inventory and favorable mortgage rates is exactly the kind of alignment buyers have been hoping for.
What would it mean for your family if, twelve months from now, you were sitting in the right home, with a fixed monthly payment, instead of still waiting to see how the housing market develops?
A Straightforward Next Step, Not a Sales Pitch
Based on where the San Jose market stands right now, the data points in a clear direction: sellers who list while competition is still limited have a meaningful advantage, and buyers who act as inventory begins recovering have more options than they did even a few months ago. That is not pressure. That is just what the numbers show.
Do you feel like this situation could be what you have been waiting for? If so, the next step is a simple conversation to look at where you are and where you want to be. Not a pitch. Just an honest look at whether the timing works for your specific situation.
Timothy Alston, Broker (DRE# 01328224), Aegis Luxury Real Estate, is available to walk through the current market with you at no pressure and no obligation. Call or text: (408) 207-4593. How would you like to proceed?
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Serving districts: San Jose Unified SD, Alum Rock Union Elementary SD, Berryessa Union SD, Cambrian SD, Campbell Union SD (partial), East Side Union High SD, Evergreen Elementary SD, Franklin-McKinley SD, Luther Burbank SD, Moreland SD, Mount Pleasant SD, Oak Grove SD, Orchard SD, Union SD. School district boundaries can change; please verify current enrollment boundaries and program offerings directly with the school district.
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Broker · DRE# 01328224
Aegis Luxury Real Estate
Harvard Business School Online, Certified Master Negotiation
23+ Years Silicon Valley Real Estate Experience
Retired Military Veteran
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The data relating to real estate for sale on this display comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange program of the MLSListings™ MLS system. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Aegis Luxury Real Estate are marked with the Internet Data Exchange icon and detailed information about them includes the names of the listing brokers and listing agents.
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Aegis Luxury Real Estate · Timothy Alston, Broker, DRE# 01328224 · 10080 N. Wolfe Rd Ste SW3-200, Cupertino CA 95014 · (408) 207-4593
Last updated: July 03, 2026 | Data reflects July 2026 MLS statistics
