Home prices in Cupertino have not fallen in over a decade, and experts say they are unlikely to fall this year either. CoreLogic data shows price appreciation averaged 15% in a single year, driven by more buyers competing for fewer homes. That supply-demand imbalance remains intact, which means waiting for a price drop could cost more than the drop itself.

You know how it feels to watch the market and wonder if you are making the right call by waiting? And then the longer you wait, the more uncertain everything seems? A lot of buyers and sellers in Cupertino are sitting in exactly that spot right now.

But here is the part most people have not stopped to think about yet: the question is not really whether home prices will fall. The more important question might be what happens to your specific situation while you wait to find out.

What Are Home Prices Actually Doing Right Now?

Have you ever stopped to think about how long home prices have been climbing without a break? According to CoreLogic, the housing market logged 121 consecutive months of year-over-year price increases. That is more than ten years of uninterrupted appreciation.

Why does that keep happening? The answer comes down to a basic imbalance. There are more buyers competing for homes than there are homes available. When demand consistently outpaces supply, home prices do not fall. They climb. And that dynamic has not changed.

Does that match what you have been seeing when you browse Cupertino homes for sale? Tight inventory, fast-moving listings, offers above asking price? That is not random. It reflects exactly the market conditions experts are describing nationally, and even more so locally in Silicon Valley.

What Experts Say About Whether Home Prices Will Fall

Here is something worth sitting with. When you survey the major forecasting organizations, not one of them is projecting that home prices will fall this year. Not CoreLogic. Not First American. Not Freddie Mac.

First American put it plainly: strong buyer demand against historically tight inventory will likely keep appreciation positive. They acknowledged that the pace may slow compared to the rapid gains of recent years, but slowing down is very different from reversing.

Freddie Mac went further. Their economists noted that waiting for a price drop while mortgage rates are climbing is a risky strategy. When you combine higher rates with still-rising home prices, the math often works against the buyer who chose to wait.

Can you see how that works? If home prices rise even modestly and mortgage rates tick up at the same time, your monthly payment on the same property could be meaningfully higher a year from now than it is today.

Why Experts Say Home Prices Are Not Set Up to Fall

What Does This Mean for Your Specific Situation?

What does your housing situation actually look like right now? Are you renting and watching property values climb while your rent goes up too? Are you a homeowner thinking about making a move but holding off because you are not sure if this is the right time?

Here is a consequence question worth sitting with honestly. If nothing changes over the next two to three years, where does that leave you? If home prices continue to appreciate even at a slower pace, and rates stay elevated, what does your path to ownership or your next home look like then compared to right now?

That is not pressure. That is just a question worth answering for yourself before you decide.

Based on what buyers and sellers across Silicon Valley are working through right now, the data suggests that the cost of waiting is real and measurable. Home equity does not build while you sit on the sideline. And in a market like Cupertino real estate, where property values have shown consistent long-term strength, the window for any given decision does not stay open indefinitely.

Does that make sense given where you are right now?

If you are a homeowner thinking about selling and moving up, waiting for prices to fall is a strategy that every major forecaster says is unlikely to pay off. The more useful question might be: what would it mean for your family if you locked in a move this year instead of watching from the sideline for another twelve months?

If you would like a straightforward look at what the numbers actually mean for your specific situation, Timothy Alston, licensed Broker (DRE# 01328224) at Aegis Luxury Real Estate, is available for a direct conversation. No pitch. Just an honest look at where you are and where you want to be. Call or text (408) 207-4593 to start that conversation when you are ready.