Most alarming real estate headlines leave out critical context. In Milpitas and across Santa Clara County, two stories dominate right now: a supposed foreclosure spike and rising mortgage rates killing the market. Both claims are missing the full picture. Understanding what the data actually shows could be the difference between making a confident housing decision and standing still while the market moves around you.

You know how you scroll past a headline and something in your stomach drops a little? “Foreclosures Spiking.” “Rising Rates Will Crash Housing.” And then you find yourself wondering if you should just wait. A lot of people in Milpitas are having that exact moment right now. But here is the part most people have not stopped to think about yet: where are those headlines actually getting their numbers?

Because the truth many people never dig into is this. The data behind those stories is often real. But the framing around that data can make something look terrifying when the full picture tells a very different story. Are you someone who reads a headline and takes it at face value? Or do you usually ask what is being left out?

Why You Don’t Believe Everything a Foreclosure Headline Tells You

Here is the situation question worth sitting with. When a headline says foreclosures are up significantly compared to last year, does that automatically mean there is a crisis forming?

Think about what last year actually was. The forbearance program essentially put a legal pause on foreclosure activity throughout 2020. Foreclosures were not happening because homeowners were protected by government policy. So comparing today’s numbers to last year’s numbers is a little like comparing your electric bill to a month when the power was off.

ATTOM, the firm that tracks this data, reported that foreclosures in September of a recent year were still down roughly 70 percent compared to September 2019, the last normal year before the pandemic. Even Rick Sharga, an Executive Vice President at ATTOM, noted that most current foreclosure activity involves vacant and abandoned properties, or loans that were already in trouble before the pandemic began. Homeowners impacted by COVID are not generally the ones losing their homes right now.

Ali Haralson, President of Auction.com, put it plainly: the feared wave of foreclosures never arrived, largely because government protections worked as intended. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has also signaled it will hold mortgage servicers accountable for helping homeowners navigate their options. Does that sound like a system on the verge of collapse? Or does it sound like something the headlines are not fully telling you?

Can you see how the framing of a story, and not the facts themselves, can believe everything you fear into existence?

What Rising Mortgage Rates Actually Do to Home Sales

The second story getting a lot of attention right now is mortgage rates. The concern is straightforward: if rates go up, fewer people can afford to buy, so sales drop and prices fall. It sounds logical. But what does the actual history show?

Looking at roughly twenty years of data, there is no consistent evidence that rising rates cause home sales to collapse. The last three notable periods of rate increases showed home sales remaining relatively stable throughout. Prices continued to appreciate during those periods as well, sometimes at a slower pace, but appreciation did not reverse.

The one period where sales did fall dramatically was 2007 through 2010. But here is something worth knowing: mortgage rates were actually falling during that stretch. The drop in sales was driven by loan fraud, overleveraged buyers, and a financial system that had been structurally compromised. Not by rising rates. The truth many people never hear is that rates and sales do not have the simple cause-and-effect relationship the headlines imply.

How would it change your thinking if you knew that homes in Milpitas have historically held their value through multiple rate-increase cycles? That the market here, anchored by tech employment and limited housing inventory, behaves differently than a national average suggests?

So where does this leave someone who is genuinely trying to make a smart decision right now? If you believe everything the loudest voices are saying, you may stay frozen while other buyers move forward. If you don’t believe everything and instead look at what the data actually shows over time, a clearer picture starts to form.

What would you do differently if you knew the foreclosure wave was not coming? If you knew that rate increases, historically, have not stopped appreciation in supply-limited markets like the Milpitas real estate market? Would that change your timeline? Would it change how you are looking at your options right now?

What happens if you keep waiting? Not rhetorically. Concretely. If rents in the area keep climbing, if inventory stays low, if prices continue to appreciate even slowly, where does that leave you in three to five years? That is worth sitting with.

If the picture starting to form here resonates with where you are, the next step is simple. A straightforward conversation with Broker Timothy Alston to look at what the numbers actually mean for your specific situation. Not a pitch. Not pressure. Just an honest look at where you are and what your real options might be. When you are ready for that conversation, reach out at (408) 207-4593. The decision is entirely yours.