The Hidden Sweet Spot in Today’s Housing Market in San Jose
Timothy Alston | Broker
Aegis Luxury Real Estate · DRE# 01328224
Published
February 27, 2024
Capital of Silicon Valley
Today’s housing supply in San Jose sits in a rare middle ground: enough new listings have arrived to give sellers more choices for their next home, yet inventory still runs nearly 40% below pre-pandemic norms. That gap is the sweet spot. Sellers face less competition than a fully recovered market would bring, while buyers have just enough options to stay active and motivated.
You know how it feels when you finally think about making a move, and then a quiet worry sets in? What if there is nothing good to buy once you sell? What if you are competing against dozens of other sellers? A lot of homeowners in San Jose have been sitting with exactly those two concerns, and understandably so.
But here is the part most people have not stopped to think about yet: today’s housing picture actually answers both of those worries at the same time. Have you looked closely at what the numbers are actually showing right now?
What Does Today’s Housing Supply Actually Look Like?
According to data from Calculated Risk, the number of homes available nationally is up roughly 15.6% compared to the same week last year. That is real growth. If you have been searching for a home to move into, that year-over-year increase means more options than you would have had twelve months ago.
But here is the other side of that same data point. Compared to 2019, the last year the housing market operated at a normal pace, inventory is still down nearly 40%. That is not a small gap. As Realtor.com noted recently, the number of San Jose homes for sale and new listing activity continues to improve compared to last year, yet inventory still has a long journey back to pre-pandemic levels.
So what does that combination actually mean for you as a seller? It is worth thinking through carefully.
Two Questions That Get to the Heart of Today’s Housing Decision
First, what has been holding you back from selling? If part of the hesitation has been worrying that you would list your home, accept an offer, and then struggle to find something worth buying, that concern is smaller than it was a year ago. The housing supply has grown enough to give you more real choices on the buy side.
Second, have you thought about what it means to sell into a market where your competition is still historically thin? When inventory is down 40% from normal levels, well-priced homes in San Jose still attract serious buyer attention. Buyers who have been watching the market for months are not going to scroll past a home that is priced and presented well. Does that change how you are thinking about your timeline?
Trend #1: Inventory Growth Is Real but Still Far Below Normal
Today’s housing supply is expanding. A 15.6% year-over-year increase in available homes is a meaningful shift for buyers who felt squeezed out in prior years. But that growth has not closed the larger gap. Sellers entering the San Jose market now are competing in a field that is still roughly 40% thinner than a pre-pandemic normal year would show. That deficit does not resolve quickly, and it continues to favor motivated sellers who price correctly.
Trend #2: The Sweet Spot for Sellers Is a Narrow Window
The phrase “sweet spot” gets used loosely, but in today’s housing context it describes something specific: a moment when supply has grown enough to give sellers a genuine next home to move into, yet not grown enough to hand buyers negotiating power. That window does not stay open indefinitely. As more homeowners decide to list, the balance shifts. The question worth sitting with is how long you are willing to wait while that window narrows.
Trend #3: Buyer Demand in San Jose Remains Consistent
Homes in San Jose that are priced accurately and presented well are still moving with buyer interest that outpaces many comparable markets nationally. Santa Clara County’s employment base and limited land supply continue to support demand even as mortgage rates stay elevated. A seller who enters today’s housing market with realistic pricing and strong preparation is not stepping into uncertainty. They are stepping into a pool of pre-approved buyers who have been waiting for the right listing.
Trend #4: More Inventory Means More Move-Up Options
One of the quieter shifts in today’s housing supply is what it does for move-up buyers. When you sell your current home and search for the next one, a 15.6% year-over-year increase in listings translates to real additional choices. If your current home no longer fits your life, whether it is too small, too large, or simply in the wrong location, the market is giving you more runway to find a better fit than it did at this time last year. That is a meaningful change for homeowners who felt trapped by thin supply.
Trend #5: Pricing Strategy Is the Variable That Controls Everything
In a market where housing supply is growing but still historically low, pricing discipline separates fast, clean sales from listings that sit and accumulate doubt. Overpriced homes in today’s housing environment tend to see price reductions and longer days on market, which signals weakness to buyers and can ultimately net less than a well-priced listing would have on day one. Working with an experienced broker who knows current comparable sales in your specific San Jose neighborhood is not optional. It is the variable that determines how the whole transaction plays out.
What would it mean for your family if you could move into the right home this year, in the right neighborhood, at a payment that actually fits your budget? And what happens if you wait another twelve months while inventory climbs closer to normal levels and the competition around you grows? Those are not rhetorical questions. They are worth writing down and answering honestly.
Today’s housing market is not perfect. No market is. But the combination of growing options for buyers and still-thin seller competition is a specific set of conditions that will not repeat itself once supply fully recovers. If the timing in your life aligns with what the market is showing right now, that alignment is worth taking seriously.
If you would like a straightforward look at what your home could sell for and what you could realistically buy next, Timothy Alston, licensed Broker (DRE# 01328224) at Aegis Luxury Real Estate in Cupertino, is available for a no-pressure conversation about your specific situation. Not a pitch. Just a clear look at the numbers. You can reach him directly at (408) 207-4593. Would that kind of conversation be useful to you right now?
Schools in San Jose
Aegis School Excellence Index · 2024-25 performance data
Serving districts: San Jose Unified SD, Alum Rock Union Elementary SD, Berryessa Union SD, Cambrian SD, Campbell Union SD (partial), East Side Union High SD, Evergreen Elementary SD, Franklin-McKinley SD, Luther Burbank SD, Moreland SD, Mount Pleasant SD, Oak Grove SD, Orchard SD, Union SD. School district boundaries can change; please verify current enrollment boundaries and program offerings directly with the school district.
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Broker · DRE# 01328224
Aegis Luxury Real Estate
Harvard Business School Online, Certified Master Negotiation
23+ Years Silicon Valley Real Estate Experience
Retired Military Veteran
Copyright © 2026 MLSListings Inc. All rights reserved.
The data relating to real estate for sale on this display comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange program of the MLSListings™ MLS system. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Aegis Luxury Real Estate are marked with the Internet Data Exchange icon and detailed information about them includes the names of the listing brokers and listing agents.
Based on information from the MLSListings MLS as of June 10, 2026. All data, including all measurements and calculations of area, is obtained from various sources and has not been, and will not be, verified by broker or MLS. All information should be independently reviewed and verified for accuracy. Properties may or may not be listed by the office/agent presenting the information.
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Aegis Luxury Real Estate · Timothy Alston, Broker, DRE# 01328224 · 10080 N. Wolfe Rd Ste SW3-200, Cupertino CA 95014 · (408) 207-4593
Last updated: July 18, 2026 | Data reflects July 2026 MLS statistics
