The Hidden Worst Home Price Myth Costing Campbell Buyers
Timothy Alston | Broker
Aegis Luxury Real Estate · DRE# 01328224
Published
May 16, 2023
Small-town charm, Silicon Valley access
The worst home price declines in the current housing cycle are most likely behind us. National data from three independent sources shows that home prices stabilized in late 2022 and began ticking back upward in early 2023. If you have been waiting on the sidelines in Campbell because you feared prices would keep falling, the data suggests that window has already closed.
You know how it goes. You check the news, you see a headline about falling prices, and somewhere in the back of your mind a question takes root: what if things get worse before they get better? And then you wait. A lot of people in Campbell are in exactly that position right now. But here is the part most people have not stopped to think about yet: what if the worst is already over, and waiting is now the risk?
Does that land differently than what you have been reading? Good. Let’s walk through it together.
What Does Your Current Situation Actually Look Like?
Before we get into the data, take a moment to think about where you are right now. Are you renting, watching your monthly payment climb while building no equity? Are you a homeowner who has been holding off on selling because price declines made you nervous about what your home is worth? Or are you a buyer who stepped back because you did not want to purchase something that might lose value?
Whatever your situation, one question is worth sitting with: how long have you been waiting, and what has that actually cost you?
Have You Ever Stopped to Think About What “Worst Home Price Decline” Actually Means?
The phrase sounds alarming. But what the data actually shows is more specific than the headlines suggest. Home prices did not go into freefall. They appreciated more slowly, peaked in June 2022, then pulled back modestly through late 2022 before stabilizing around August and September. That pullback, as uncomfortable as it felt, appears to be the worst home price correction of this cycle.
Three separate reports confirm the same pattern. The month-over-month numbers bottomed out, held steady, and have since started climbing again. Andy Walden, Vice President of Enterprise Research at Black Knight, put it plainly: just five months prior to early 2023, prices were falling in roughly 92% of major U.S. markets. By March 2023, prices were rising in 92% of those same markets. That is a complete reversal in a very short window.
Can you see how a headline written at the bottom of that decline, read months later, could leave someone with a completely inaccurate picture of where things stand?
Why Are Prices Recovering? The Inventory Problem Nobody Talks About
Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, points to one core driver: there simply are not enough homes available. Limited inventory is pushing prices back up, even as mortgage rates remain elevated. The Campbell market, like most of Santa Clara County, has felt that inventory pressure for years. Supply constraints tend to put a floor under home values, and right now that floor appears to be holding.
If prices are recovering nationally, and local inventory in Campbell remains tight, what does that suggest about what happens to price declines from here? Sitting on the sidelines waiting for a further drop may mean waiting for something that the data does not currently support.
Homes in Campbell have historically held their value well relative to broader regional trends, and the current inventory picture gives little reason to expect a sharp reversal. Campbell real estate tends to attract both families and professionals, which creates durable demand across market cycles.
Trend #1: National Price Declines Have Already Reversed
Three independent data sources, including Black Knight and CoreLogic, confirm that month-over-month home price declines bottomed out in late 2022 and reversed course by early 2023. The worst home price correction of this cycle registered across 92% of major U.S. markets before flipping to gains in those same markets within five months. For buyers who waited hoping to catch the absolute bottom, the data suggests that window has passed. Price declines of this magnitude rarely repeat in the same short cycle when inventory remains constrained.
Trend #2: Low Inventory Is the Underlying Driver Sustaining Home Prices
CoreLogic’s Chief Economist attributes the price rebound directly to a persistent lack of homes available for sale. When supply stays low and buyer demand remains present, downward pressure on home prices is limited. Santa Clara County, including the Campbell market, has experienced below-average inventory levels for an extended period. This structural shortage acts as a natural floor under property values, making a deep secondary price decline unlikely without a significant demand shock.
Trend #3: Year-Over-Year Home Price Appreciation Stayed Positive Through the Correction
Even during the period when month-over-month home price data showed declines, the year-over-year view remained positive throughout the correction. Prices simply appreciated more slowly than they did at the peak of the pandemic buying surge. This distinction matters for homeowners assessing equity and for buyers trying to gauge risk. A slower appreciation rate is not the same as losing value, and understanding that difference could change how you evaluate your next move.
Trend #4: The Worst Home Price Period Created a Short Buying Window That May Already Be Closing
The period from roughly July through September 2022 represented the widest window of relative softness in home prices during this cycle. Buyers who were pre-approved and positioned during that period had the most negotiating leverage. As prices recover and competition returns with the spring buying season, that window narrows. For Campbell homes for sale, the combination of recovering prices and limited supply means well-priced listings are moving faster than they were six months ago.
Trend #5: Sellers Who Waited Out the Worst Home Price Dip Are Regaining Leverage
Homeowners who held off on listing because they were concerned about price declines are entering a more favorable environment. As month-over-month home price gains accumulate, seller leverage gradually returns. In competitive submarkets like Campbell, where buyer demand tends to outpace available listings, the gap between list price and final sale price has been tightening again. Sellers who price strategically and list with accurate market data are seeing results that looked unlikely just a few months ago.
What Happens If Nothing Changes for You?
Here is a consequence worth sitting with. If you keep waiting, and prices continue to recover, what does your position look like in twelve months? You would be paying a higher home price than today, likely competing against more buyers, and looking back at a window you chose not to step through. Is that outcome better than the risk you were trying to avoid?
On the other hand, if you have been holding off on selling because you were worried about what price declines would do to your equity, the shift in the data may give you a clearer picture. Your home’s value likely held up better than the headlines suggested. And as prices tick back up, that picture improves further.
What Might This Mean for Someone in Your Situation?
If you have been on the fence as a buyer, the data now suggests you have something you did not have six months ago: evidence that price declines are not accelerating. You can make a decision with more confidence. Buying now means locking in a home price before further recovery takes hold, and starting to build equity in an asset that historically grows in value.
If you are a seller, the market is giving you more reason to move forward. The worst home price pressure of this cycle appears to have passed. Listing now, before more sellers return and dilute the inventory advantage, could put you in a stronger negotiating position than waiting another quarter.
Does any of that connect with what you have been thinking about?
A Straightforward Next Step
Timothy Alston, licensed Broker (DRE# 01328224) with Aegis Luxury Real Estate in Cupertino, works with buyers and sellers across the Campbell market and the broader Santa Clara County area. If you would like a clear, honest look at what the current home price data means for your specific situation, that conversation is available to you.
No pressure. Not a sales call. Just a straightforward look at where you are and where you want to be. If that sounds like it might be worth thirty minutes of your time, you can reach Timothy directly at (408) 207-4593. Would that be appropriate for where you are right now?
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Broker · DRE# 01328224
Aegis Luxury Real Estate
Harvard Business School Online, Certified Master Negotiation
23+ Years Silicon Valley Real Estate Experience
Retired Military Veteran
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The data relating to real estate for sale on this display comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange program of the MLSListings™ MLS system. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Aegis Luxury Real Estate are marked with the Internet Data Exchange icon and detailed information about them includes the names of the listing brokers and listing agents.
Based on information from the MLSListings MLS as of June 10, 2026. All data, including all measurements and calculations of area, is obtained from various sources and has not been, and will not be, verified by broker or MLS. All information should be independently reviewed and verified for accuracy. Properties may or may not be listed by the office/agent presenting the information.
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Aegis Luxury Real Estate · Timothy Alston, Broker, DRE# 01328224 · 10080 N. Wolfe Rd Ste SW3-200, Cupertino CA 95014 · (408) 207-4593
Last updated: July 20, 2026 | Data reflects July 2026 MLS statistics
