Hidden Truth About These Top Cities and Home Prices
Timothy Alston | Broker
Aegis Luxury Real Estate · DRE# 01328224
Published
November 14, 2023
Garlic capital, South Valley gateway
Across these top cities tracked by national price indexes, home prices are still climbing, not falling. The most recent data from Case-Shiller shows appreciation returning to a steady, normal pace after a brief adjustment period in late 2022. If you have been waiting on the sidelines in Gilroy because you expected prices to drop further, the numbers suggest that window may have already closed.
You know how it goes: you hear one headline about prices falling, and suddenly every conversation about buying or selling gets put on hold. And then another headline contradicts the first one. And now you are not sure what is actually true. A lot of people in Gilroy are sitting with exactly that kind of uncertainty right now.
But here is the part most people have not stopped to think about yet: what if the story you heard was only half the story?
What does your housing situation actually look like today? Are you renting and watching your monthly payment inch up every year? Are you sitting on a property you have been meaning to sell but kept holding off, just in case prices moved in a different direction? How long have you been in that holding pattern, and what has it quietly cost you?
What These Top Cities Actually Show About Price Trends
Here is what the data actually shows. In the first half of 2022, home prices shot up fast. Those gains were dramatic and not sustainable long-term. So in the second half of 2022, prices pulled back. The dip was real, but it was also small and short-lived.
The news cycle made that pullback sound catastrophic. But three separate national price reports, including Case-Shiller, now show prices climbing again, this time at a pace that looks much more like normal, healthy appreciation. These top cities show consistent gains across markets that span the entire country, not just a few outliers.
Can you see how that changes things if you were waiting for a better entry point?
The cities show appreciation returning across dozens of major metro areas. When cities show this kind of broad, coordinated movement, it is rarely a blip. It tends to reflect something structural happening in supply and demand. And that matters for anyone thinking about the Gilroy market specifically.
Trend #1: Prices Stabilized Before Climbing Again
After the sharp 2022 run-up, national home prices corrected briefly but never collapsed. The correction lasted only a few months before appreciation resumed. For buyers who waited through that period expecting a deeper drop, the data now suggests those steeper discounts never materialized. The pattern points to a market floor that held firmly even under elevated mortgage rate pressure.
Trend #2: Appreciation Is Returning to a Normal Pace
The current rate of home price growth is slower than 2022, and that is actually a healthy sign. Sustainable appreciation tends to build equity steadily without triggering the kind of panic that unsustainable spikes create. For someone buying in Gilroy homes for sale, a normal appreciation curve means the purchase has a much better chance of making financial sense over a five to ten year horizon.
Trend #3: Low Inventory Is Keeping Upward Pressure on Prices
Market inventory across top cities remains constrained. When the number of available homes stays low relative to buyer demand, sellers hold pricing power. In the Gilroy market, this dynamic is visible in how quickly well-priced homes move through escrow. Buyers entering a low-inventory environment often face multiple offers even at current mortgage rate levels.
Trend #4: Expert Forecasts Point to Further Gains
Multiple independent forecasters now project home prices will finish the year positive and continue appreciating. These are not optimistic guesses; they are model-based projections informed by inventory data, employment trends, and buyer activity. For someone on the fence in Gilroy real estate, that forecast window matters. The longer the wait, the higher the likely entry price.
Trend #5: Sellers Who Waited Are Now Returning to the Market
Homeowners who delayed listing because of price uncertainty are beginning to move. As more sellers gain confidence that property values are stable and rising, listing activity in top cities is gradually increasing. That shift in seller behavior tends to bring more balance to markets that have been supply-starved. For Gilroy sellers, that context matters when timing a listing strategy.
What Does This Actually Mean for Your Situation?
If you have been holding off on buying because you were worried about purchasing at the top, here is a question worth sitting with: what does waiting actually cost you? If home values in your target neighborhood appreciate even modestly over the next year, what does that mean for your down payment relative to the purchase price you could lock in today?
And if you have been delaying a sale because you were not sure what prices were doing, have you stopped to think about what that delay has meant in terms of missed equity? Property values in Gilroy have not collapsed. The data points the other direction.
What happens if nothing changes for you over the next three to five years? If you keep renting, keep waiting, keep watching prices move without you, where does that leave your financial picture?
Based on what many buyers and sellers are sharing, the concern is less about whether prices are rising and more about whether the timing is right for their specific situation. That is exactly the kind of question a straightforward conversation can help clarify.
Do you feel like this might be the kind of clarity you have been looking for? If so, the next step is a simple conversation with Broker Timothy Alston. Not a pitch. Not a sales call. Just a direct look at where you are and what the numbers show for your specific situation in the current market.
Reach out at (408) 207-4593 and find out what the data actually means for you.
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Broker · DRE# 01328224
Aegis Luxury Real Estate
Harvard Business School Online, Certified Master Negotiation
23+ Years Silicon Valley Real Estate Experience
Retired Military Veteran
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The data relating to real estate for sale on this display comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange program of the MLSListings™ MLS system. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Aegis Luxury Real Estate are marked with the Internet Data Exchange icon and detailed information about them includes the names of the listing brokers and listing agents.
Based on information from the MLSListings MLS as of June 10, 2026. All data, including all measurements and calculations of area, is obtained from various sources and has not been, and will not be, verified by broker or MLS. All information should be independently reviewed and verified for accuracy. Properties may or may not be listed by the office/agent presenting the information.
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Data updated every 15 minutes. Visit www.MLSListings.com for more information.
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Aegis Luxury Real Estate · Timothy Alston, Broker, DRE# 01328224 · 10080 N. Wolfe Rd Ste SW3-200, Cupertino CA 95014 · (408) 207-4593
Last updated: July 17, 2026 | Data reflects July 2026 MLS statistics
