Hidden Truth in Two Graphs Milpitas Buyers Overlook
Timothy Alston | Broker
Aegis Luxury Real Estate · DRE# 01328224
Published
November 08, 2021
Tech corridor crossroads
Are rates above 3% actually a problem for buyers in Milpitas? Looking at two graphs that place today’s mortgage rates against the last 50 years of lending history, the answer surprises most people. Buyers who feel upset about missing sub-3% rates often discover, when they see the full picture, that today’s rates still represent one of the strongest buying environments in decades.
You know how it goes. You hear a friend mention they locked in a 2.75% rate a year or two ago, and suddenly the rate you are looking at today feels like a penalty. And that feeling is completely understandable. But here is the part most buyers in Milpitas have not stopped to think about yet: what if the number that feels like bad news is actually still historically good news?
What does your current housing situation actually look like right now? Are you renting, watching your monthly payment go up each lease renewal, and waiting for some perfect moment that has not arrived yet?
What Two Graphs Tell You That Headlines Do Not
Here is a question worth sitting with. When you hear that rates climbed above 3%, what are you comparing that number to? If the answer is the all-time lows of the last couple of years, that comparison might be costing you something more valuable than a lower rate.
Two graphs tell a very different story than the one making the rounds right now. The first looks at average 30-year fixed mortgage rates over the last five years. Even with rates above 3%, the number sits well below where it spent most of that window. The second graph, the one that really changes the conversation, stretches back 50 years. In that context, today’s rate looks less like a setback and more like a rare window that most generations of buyers never had access to.
Have you ever stopped to think about what buyers were facing in the early 1980s? Rates were pushing 18%. A buyer then would have seen today’s rate as extraordinary. So the real question is: which comparison is actually helping you make a good decision?
Being Upset About 3% Means Comparing to an Outlier, Not a Baseline
Being upset about missing sub-3% rates makes sense on the surface. But those rates were the outlier, not the standard. The two graphs that show the full 50-year view make that clear. The average rate across that entire period runs well above where we are today, closer to 7% or 8% for much of modern lending history.
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, has noted that rising rates reduce buying power, meaning the same home costs more per month the longer a buyer waits. That is not pressure. That is just math. Does that change how you are thinking about your timeline?
In Milpitas, where property values reflect strong buyer demand and limited inventory in Santa Clara County, that monthly cost difference compounds quickly. A rate increase of even half a point on a $1.2 million home changes the monthly payment by several hundred dollars. Over 30 years, you are looking at a meaningful gap in total cost.
Two Graphs and the Question Most Buyers Are Not Asking
Most buyers are asking: “Is this rate good?” The better question might be: “Compared to what, and compared to when?”
The two graphs that map rate history over five years and fifty years are doing something important. They are giving you a reference point that the day-to-day headlines tend to skip over. And when you see about 3% against the full backdrop of what borrowing has cost Americans across five decades, the picture shifts considerably.
What would it mean for your family if you locked in a fixed payment today that could not be raised by a landlord, in a market where rents in Milpitas have continued to climb? Can you see how that monthly certainty has a value that goes beyond the rate itself?
Homes in Milpitas have shown consistent appreciation tied to the region’s employment base and proximity to major tech employers. Buyers who purchased in previous rate environments still built equity, even when their rates were higher than today’s. The rate matters. But it is one variable in a larger equation that includes home equity growth, tax considerations, and long-term wealth building.
What Happens If You Keep Waiting?
Here is the consequence question worth asking honestly. If rates continue rising over the next twelve to eighteen months as most economists project, and home values in Milpitas real estate hold steady or increase, what does your financial picture look like two years from now compared to today?
You would be paying a higher rate on a likely higher purchase price, with two more years of rent paid out and not building equity. What is that actually costing you? Not emotionally. Mathematically.
That is not a reason to rush. It is a reason to look at the numbers clearly, without the distortion that comes from comparing today to a six-month window that may never return.
Based on what buyers across the South Bay are working through right now, the two graphs showing rate history over five and fifty years might be exactly the context you have been missing. Not because they make the decision for you, but because they let you make the decision based on accurate information instead of a misleading comparison.
Do you feel like it might be worth a straightforward conversation to see what your actual numbers look like at today’s rate, in today’s market, for your specific situation? Not a pitch. Not a sales call. Just an honest look at where you are and where you want to be. If that sounds useful, Timothy Alston, Broker, is available at (408) 207-4593. The next move is yours to make whenever you are ready.
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Broker · DRE# 01328224
Aegis Luxury Real Estate
Harvard Business School Online, Certified Master Negotiation
23+ Years Silicon Valley Real Estate Experience
Retired Military Veteran
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Aegis Luxury Real Estate · Timothy Alston, Broker, DRE# 01328224 · 10080 N. Wolfe Rd Ste SW3-200, Cupertino CA 95014 · (408) 207-4593
Last updated: July 09, 2026 | Data reflects July 2026 MLS statistics
