Will Spring Be a Bust? 4 Decades of Housing Data Tell a Complex Story
As we head into the spring housing market, questions arise about the impact of inflation and high interest rates on real estate. By analyzing past periods of high inflation and high interest rates, such as in 1979, 1980, and 1990, we can gain insights into the potential future of the housing market.
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, inflation skyrocketed and the Federal Reserve, led by Paul Volcker, pushed interest rates higher to combat it. This led to a slowdown in the housing market, but it wasn’t a permanent setback. Though today isn’t a mirror image of that time, some of the same forces have returned, and by exploring data from those periods, we can attempt to anticipate what lies ahead.
This spring is likely to be slower than recent years, but that doesn’t mean it’s the end of the world. In fact, past slowdowns under similar conditions have not been terribly deep or prolonged. High prices and high mortgage rates may continue to impact buyers, but a unique factor today is the lack of housing supply compared to the 1970s.
Some experts believe that the current situation may be more similar to the recession of 1990, which saw a temporary pullback in the housing market before it rebounded and reached new heights. If history is any guide, we may see a temporary stalling in home prices, but not a fundamental crumbling of the market.
While this spring may be less active, there are still buyers and demand in the market. Experts anticipate that lending and borrowing could become easier as inflation begins to moderate, and if interest rates come down, we could see an increase in buyer activity.
Ultimately, the coming months are likely to be a different housing market than in the past few years, but it’s not all doom and gloom. As we continue to navigate the challenges of inflation and high interest rates, it’s crucial to remember that the housing market has weathered similar storms in the past and emerged stronger in the long run.


![Is It Still a Seller’s Market? Here’s What the Data Says. Is It Still a Seller's Market? Here's What the Data Says. Remember a few years back when sellers held all the power and buyers were stuck offering way over asking or waiving inspections just to get a chance at the house? In many markets, those days are behind us. While it’s going to vary by area, more metros are slowly shifting to favor buyers, and the market is starting to look a lot more like a two-way street again. And that balance is something we haven’t had in a while. Whether you're buying or selling, here's what you need to know about what's changing and what it means for your move. The Most Buyer-Friendly Market in YearsThe national data tells an interesting story right now. According to Realtor.com: "The national housing market is balanced but gradually loosening as the cycle moves in a more buyer-friendly direction . . ." That’s because, over the past few years, more and more metros have been flipping back to more buyer-friendly terms as inventory’s grown. And when you zoom in on the latest Realtor.com data for the top 50 metro markets over time, the trend becomes really clear (see graph below). Back in 2021, almost all major metros were seller's markets. By the end of 2025, only 1 in 3 still favored sellers. That's an obvious shift. And that changes how the market is going to feel for everyone. Sellers shouldn’t still expect 2021 conditions, but neither should buyers. At least, not generally speaking. It’s Not the Same Story EverywhereThat said, who has the power ultimately depends on where you live. While more metros are leaning buyer-friendly lately, there are still plenty of strong seller's markets right now, too. It really comes down to how much housing supply and demand there is in your area. And that varies enormously by region. Sun Belt cities like Austin, Tampa, and San Antonio saw major building booms in recent years, giving buyers more options and more negotiating room. Meanwhile, cities in the Northeast and Midwest – think Rochester, Hartford, and Buffalo – didn't see that same wave, so inventory stayed tight and competition stayed fierce. As Jeff Ostrowski, Housing Analyst at Bankrate, explains: “The formerly hot Sun Belt markets have cooled, while the Northeast and Midwest have stayed hot. The big driver here is construction activity. The softest markets now [have] experienced big booms that spurred new building, and that has led to a large supply of new and existing homes on the market in those places.” Practical Advice for Your MoveTo find out who has the power in your local market, talk to an agent. Because knowing what’s happening locally is going to be the key to setting the right strategy for your move. If the market is working in your favor, great. Lean in and use it to your benefit. But if it’s not, all hope isn’t lost. Your agent can help you figure out how to approach any market. Here's some practical advice if there’s a mismatch between your goal and local market conditions. If you're buying in a seller's market: - Get pre-approved before you start shopping. It shows sellers you're serious. - Be ready to act fast when the right home hits the market. - Consider offering a quick closing date or flexible terms. - Work closely with your agent to craft a competitive offer. If you're selling in a buyer's market: - Price it right from day one. Overpricing will cost you time and money. - Focus on curb appeal and staging to stand out in areas with more inventory. - Be open to offering incentives, like covering closing costs or a home warranty. - Expect buyers to negotiate and be ready to be flexible. Bottom LineRight now, local markets are moving in very different directions. And your strategy as a buyer or seller should reflect your market. Is It Still a Seller's Market? Here's What the Data Says.](https://alstonhomes.com/wp-content/uploads/6-18-26-218x150.png)



















