![Is It Still a Seller's Market? Here's What the Data Says. Remember a few years back when sellers held all the power and buyers were stuck offering way over asking or waiving inspections just to get a chance at the house? In many markets, those days are behind us. While it’s going to vary by area, more metros are slowly shifting to favor buyers, and the market is starting to look a lot more like a two-way street again. And that balance is something we haven’t had in a while. Whether you're buying or selling, here's what you need to know about what's changing and what it means for your move. The Most Buyer-Friendly Market in YearsThe national data tells an interesting story right now. According to Realtor.com: "The national housing market is balanced but gradually loosening as the cycle moves in a more buyer-friendly direction . . ." That’s because, over the past few years, more and more metros have been flipping back to more buyer-friendly terms as inventory’s grown. And when you zoom in on the latest Realtor.com data for the top 50 metro markets over time, the trend becomes really clear (see graph below). Back in 2021, almost all major metros were seller's markets. By the end of 2025, only 1 in 3 still favored sellers. That's an obvious shift. And that changes how the market is going to feel for everyone. Sellers shouldn’t still expect 2021 conditions, but neither should buyers. At least, not generally speaking. It’s Not the Same Story EverywhereThat said, who has the power ultimately depends on where you live. While more metros are leaning buyer-friendly lately, there are still plenty of strong seller's markets right now, too. It really comes down to how much housing supply and demand there is in your area. And that varies enormously by region. Sun Belt cities like Austin, Tampa, and San Antonio saw major building booms in recent years, giving buyers more options and more negotiating room. Meanwhile, cities in the Northeast and Midwest – think Rochester, Hartford, and Buffalo – didn't see that same wave, so inventory stayed tight and competition stayed fierce. As Jeff Ostrowski, Housing Analyst at Bankrate, explains: “The formerly hot Sun Belt markets have cooled, while the Northeast and Midwest have stayed hot. The big driver here is construction activity. The softest markets now [have] experienced big booms that spurred new building, and that has led to a large supply of new and existing homes on the market in those places.” Practical Advice for Your MoveTo find out who has the power in your local market, talk to an agent. Because knowing what’s happening locally is going to be the key to setting the right strategy for your move. If the market is working in your favor, great. Lean in and use it to your benefit. But if it’s not, all hope isn’t lost. Your agent can help you figure out how to approach any market. Here's some practical advice if there’s a mismatch between your goal and local market conditions. If you're buying in a seller's market: - Get pre-approved before you start shopping. It shows sellers you're serious. - Be ready to act fast when the right home hits the market. - Consider offering a quick closing date or flexible terms. - Work closely with your agent to craft a competitive offer. If you're selling in a buyer's market: - Price it right from day one. Overpricing will cost you time and money. - Focus on curb appeal and staging to stand out in areas with more inventory. - Be open to offering incentives, like covering closing costs or a home warranty. - Expect buyers to negotiate and be ready to be flexible. Bottom LineRight now, local markets are moving in very different directions. And your strategy as a buyer or seller should reflect your market. Is It Still a Seller's Market? Here's What the Data Says.](https://alstonhomes.com/wp-content/uploads/6-18-26-218x150.png "Is It Still a Seller’s Market? Here’s What the Data Says.")
Last March, many involved in the residential housing industry feared the market would be crushed under the pressure of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. Instead, real estate had one of its best years ever. Home sales and prices were both up substantially over the year before. 2020 was so strong that many now fear the market’s exuberance mirrors that of the last housing boom and, as a result, we’re now headed for another crash.
However, there are many reasons this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are six visuals to show the dramatic differences.
1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.
During the housing bubble, it was difficult not to get a mortgage. Today, it’s tough to qualify. Recently, the Urban Institute released their latest Housing Credit Availability Index (HCAI) which “measures the percentage of owner-occupied home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”
The index shows that lenders were comfortable taking on high levels of risk during the housing boom of 2004-2006. It also reveals that today, the HCAI is under 5 percent, which is the lowest it’s been since the introduction of the index. The report explains:
“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”
This is nothing like the last time.
2. Prices aren’t soaring out of control.
Below is a graph showing annual home price appreciation over the past four years compared to the four years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation was quite strong last year, it’s nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.There’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.8%. So, while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating out of control as it did in the early 2000s.
This is nothing like the last time.
3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.
The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory, which is causing an acceleration in home values.This is nothing like the last time.
4. New construction isn’t making up the difference in inventory needed.
Some may think new construction is filling the void. However, if we compare today to right before the housing crash, we can see that an overabundance of newly built homes was a major challenge then, but isn’t now.This is nothing like the last time.
5. Houses aren’t becoming too expensive to buy.
The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fifteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased, and the mortgage rate is about 3%. That means the average homeowner pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a chart showing that difference:As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, explains:
“Lower mortgage interest rates and rising incomes correspond with higher house prices as home buyers can afford to borrow and buy more. If housing is appropriately valued, house-buying power should equal or outpace the median sale price of a home. Looking back at the bubble years, house prices exceeded house-buying power in 2006, but today house-buying power is nearly twice as high as the median sale price nationally.”
This is nothing like the last time.
6. People are equity rich, not tapped out.
In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as personal ATM machines. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over 50% of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity – and owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here’s a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out almost $500 billion dollars less than before:During the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owed was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a wave of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. With the average home equity now standing at over $190,000, this won’t happen today.
This is nothing like the last time.
Bottom Line
If you’re concerned that we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.
