The Hidden Truth About Home Price Drops in Santa Clara
Timothy Alston | Broker
Aegis Luxury Real Estate · DRE# 01328224
Published
June 16, 2022
Sports, tech, and community
Home price deceleration and home price depreciation are not the same thing, and confusing them could lead you to make a costly decision in the Santa Clara market. Deceleration means prices are still rising, just at a slower pace. Depreciation means prices are actually falling. Every major real estate forecast right now points to deceleration, not depreciation. That distinction matters more than most buyers and sellers realize.
You know how you have been hearing a lot of noise about the housing market lately? Headlines about “cooling prices” and “slowing growth” tend to blur together until it starts to sound like homes are losing value. And if you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop, you might be operating on an assumption that deserves a second look.
Have you ever stopped to think about what it actually means when experts say the market is “slowing down”? Slower growth and negative growth are two very different outcomes. One still builds your equity. The other does not. Which one do you think is actually happening right now?
What Home Price Data in Santa Clara Is Actually Telling You
Here is some context worth sitting with. Home values in the United States have appreciated for well over 120 consecutive months. That is more than a decade of uninterrupted growth. Since 2020, that growth accelerated sharply because the number of buyers far outpaced the number of available homes. High demand with low supply created upward pressure on the home price across every major market, including Santa Clara homes for sale.
Santa Clara real estate spent nearly a decade rebuilding after the 2008 correction. Home values climbed steadily but predictably, driven by tech sector job growth and limited new construction. Buyers who entered the market during this window, even at what felt like elevated prices at the time, accumulated substantial equity by the time the 2020 acceleration arrived. The lesson from this era is that waiting for a better entry point often costs more than simply entering.
What does your current housing situation actually look like? Are you renting while watching listing prices in Santa Clara and wondering if waiting is the smarter move? How long have you been in that holding pattern, and what has it cost you so far in equity you have not built?
Historically low mortgage rates collided with a wave of remote-work-driven demand and a severe shortage of available inventory. In markets like Santa Clara, multiple-offer situations became routine and average home prices surged well beyond pre-pandemic projections. Supply chain disruptions slowed new construction, compounding the inventory gap. Buyers who hesitated during this period, expecting a correction that never materialized, watched their purchasing power erode month after month.
Why Price Deceleration Doesn’t Mean What You Might Think
Seven leading industry economists and housing analysts have each released independent home price forecasts. Not one of them is calling for depreciation. Every single projection shows continued appreciation, just at a more measured pace. That is the definition of price deceleration: the rate of growth slows, but the direction does not reverse.
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained it directly: demand for homes continues to outpace supply, which keeps upward pressure on the home price. Pulsenomics founder Terry Loebs noted that a vast majority of economists anticipate home values will keep rising this year and beyond.
Can you see how that changes the calculus for someone waiting on the sidelines? If prices are forecast to keep climbing, even gradually, what is the cost of another year of waiting?
Rising mortgage rates cooled buyer urgency and brought more inventory to market compared to the peak frenzy years. In Silicon Valley markets, including homes in Santa Clara, price growth moderated from the double-digit surges of 2021. But moderation is not reversal. Average home values held firm, supported by the same fundamental imbalance: more qualified buyers competing for a limited number of listings. Price deceleration arrived as forecast; depreciation did not.
The Question That Actually Matters for Your Home Equity
Here is the thing about market timing. Most people are waiting for a sign that prices have bottomed out before they buy. But by the time that signal is visible to everyone, the opportunity has usually already moved. Does that pattern sound familiar?
If you could lock in a home price today that continues to appreciate over the next five years, even at a slower pace, what would that mean for your net worth compared to continuing to rent? That is not a rhetorical question. The average difference in net worth between a homeowner and a renter widens every year, regardless of whether we are in an acceleration phase or a deceleration phase.
What happens if nothing changes for you over the next three years? If the Santa Clara market continues appreciating at a slower but still positive rate, and you are still renting in year three, where does that leave you relative to someone who bought today?
Price deceleration is real. The data supports it. But deceleration doesn’t mean the home price train has stopped moving. It means it has shifted from a sprint to a steady walk. Walking in the right direction still gets you somewhere.
If you are trying to work out what these numbers mean for your specific situation, whether you are buying, selling, or just trying to understand where you stand, that is exactly the kind of conversation Timothy Alston has every week with people in your position. No pressure, no pitch. Just a straightforward look at the numbers. Would that kind of conversation be helpful for you? Call or text (408) 207-4593 to set up a time.
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Broker · DRE# 01328224
Aegis Luxury Real Estate
Harvard Business School Online, Certified Master Negotiation
23+ Years Silicon Valley Real Estate Experience
Retired Military Veteran
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The data relating to real estate for sale on this display comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange program of the MLSListings™ MLS system. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Aegis Luxury Real Estate are marked with the Internet Data Exchange icon and detailed information about them includes the names of the listing brokers and listing agents.
Based on information from the MLSListings MLS as of June 12, 2026. All data, including all measurements and calculations of area, is obtained from various sources and has not been, and will not be, verified by broker or MLS. All information should be independently reviewed and verified for accuracy. Properties may or may not be listed by the office/agent presenting the information.
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Aegis Luxury Real Estate · Timothy Alston, Broker, DRE# 01328224 · 10080 N. Wolfe Rd Ste SW3-200, Cupertino CA 95014 · (408) 207-4593
Last updated: July 11, 2026 | Data reflects July 2026 MLS statistics
