![Is It Still a Seller's Market? Here's What the Data Says. Remember a few years back when sellers held all the power and buyers were stuck offering way over asking or waiving inspections just to get a chance at the house? In many markets, those days are behind us. While it’s going to vary by area, more metros are slowly shifting to favor buyers, and the market is starting to look a lot more like a two-way street again. And that balance is something we haven’t had in a while. Whether you're buying or selling, here's what you need to know about what's changing and what it means for your move. The Most Buyer-Friendly Market in YearsThe national data tells an interesting story right now. According to Realtor.com: "The national housing market is balanced but gradually loosening as the cycle moves in a more buyer-friendly direction . . ." That’s because, over the past few years, more and more metros have been flipping back to more buyer-friendly terms as inventory’s grown. And when you zoom in on the latest Realtor.com data for the top 50 metro markets over time, the trend becomes really clear (see graph below). Back in 2021, almost all major metros were seller's markets. By the end of 2025, only 1 in 3 still favored sellers. That's an obvious shift. And that changes how the market is going to feel for everyone. Sellers shouldn’t still expect 2021 conditions, but neither should buyers. At least, not generally speaking. It’s Not the Same Story EverywhereThat said, who has the power ultimately depends on where you live. While more metros are leaning buyer-friendly lately, there are still plenty of strong seller's markets right now, too. It really comes down to how much housing supply and demand there is in your area. And that varies enormously by region. Sun Belt cities like Austin, Tampa, and San Antonio saw major building booms in recent years, giving buyers more options and more negotiating room. Meanwhile, cities in the Northeast and Midwest – think Rochester, Hartford, and Buffalo – didn't see that same wave, so inventory stayed tight and competition stayed fierce. As Jeff Ostrowski, Housing Analyst at Bankrate, explains: “The formerly hot Sun Belt markets have cooled, while the Northeast and Midwest have stayed hot. The big driver here is construction activity. The softest markets now [have] experienced big booms that spurred new building, and that has led to a large supply of new and existing homes on the market in those places.” Practical Advice for Your MoveTo find out who has the power in your local market, talk to an agent. Because knowing what’s happening locally is going to be the key to setting the right strategy for your move. If the market is working in your favor, great. Lean in and use it to your benefit. But if it’s not, all hope isn’t lost. Your agent can help you figure out how to approach any market. Here's some practical advice if there’s a mismatch between your goal and local market conditions. If you're buying in a seller's market: - Get pre-approved before you start shopping. It shows sellers you're serious. - Be ready to act fast when the right home hits the market. - Consider offering a quick closing date or flexible terms. - Work closely with your agent to craft a competitive offer. If you're selling in a buyer's market: - Price it right from day one. Overpricing will cost you time and money. - Focus on curb appeal and staging to stand out in areas with more inventory. - Be open to offering incentives, like covering closing costs or a home warranty. - Expect buyers to negotiate and be ready to be flexible. Bottom LineRight now, local markets are moving in very different directions. And your strategy as a buyer or seller should reflect your market. Is It Still a Seller's Market? Here's What the Data Says.](https://alstonhomes.com/wp-content/uploads/6-18-26-218x150.png "Is It Still a Seller’s Market? Here’s What the Data Says.")
One of the biggest reasons buyers are still sitting on the sidelines is because they think home prices are going to come down.
- Some believe a crash is coming and they’ll get a better deal if they hold off.
- Others worry they’ll buy now and watch their home’s value fall later.
And nobody wants to overpay or buy right before values drop. But here’s the question worth asking:
What if the crash you’re waiting for isn’t actually coming?
Because that’s what the latest data suggests.
Experts Are Not Calling for a Crash
If you’ve spent any time online lately, you’ve seen posts claiming home prices are about to come crashing down. And it’s true that some markets are seeing small price declines right now.
But that’s not the same thing as a nationwide crash.
While some places are going through a price adjustment, Realtor.com data shows home prices are still rising in 71% of housing markets across the country.
The trouble is, since negative news sells, you’re seeing more coverage about how a handful of markets are seeing declines, than how the majority are still seeing prices rise. And that’s unfortunate.
It’s exactly why a lot of buyers end up with the impression that prices are falling everywhere when they’re not. So how do you really know where prices are really headed from here?
That’s where the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae comes in.
Home Prices Will Rise for the Next 5 Years
Every quarter, more than 100 economists, housing experts, and market analysts are asked where they think home prices are headed based on the latest data available.
And despite all the uncertainty in today’s market, there’s one thing they largely agreed on:
They don’t think a crash is coming.
In fact, the average of all of their forecasts calls for home prices to rise every year for at least the next 5 years (see graph below):
The point is that the overwhelming expectation isn’t for prices to fall. It’s for prices to rise at a more normal pace. And just in case you’re looking at the forecasts and saying: “of course they’d say that” – know that this survey doesn’t just include optimists. It includes pessimists too.
Even the Pessimists Aren’t Predicting a Crash
Researchers broke the panel into groups based on how bullish or bearish they were about housing. The result? Even the most pessimistic group still expects home prices to climb over the next five years.
Optimists think we’ll see prices go up roughly 4% a year. Pessimists say it’ll be closer to 1%. The reality may be somewhere in the middle.
Think about that for a second. The debate among experts isn’t whether prices will crash. It’s how much they’ll rise.
That’s a very different conversation than the one happening across social media.
This Means Waiting Could Actually Cost You
So, if you’re putting off your move until prices come down, you may be disappointed. According to the experts, a widespread crash isn’t in the cards.
In fact, based on the HPES forecast, a buyer who purchased a $400,000 home this January would gain nearly $40,000 in equity over the next five years from appreciation alone, even in this more moderate market (see below):
Of course, this all depends on local market conditions. This forecast is a national average. But broadly speaking, if the experts are right, the bigger risk isn’t that prices will crash. It may be waiting for a crash that never comes.
Because depending on your market, if you wait, you could be missing out on $40k in equity or paying 40k more in 5 years for the same house.
Bottom Line
A lot of buyers are waiting because they think prices will fall, but that’s not what the experts are saying.
If you’re trying to decide whether waiting still makes sense, let’s connect. That way you understand what’s happening in our local market and what it could mean for your plans.
