Hidden Risks Builders & Buyers Miss in San Jose Real Estate
Timothy Alston | Broker
Aegis Luxury Real Estate · DRE# 01328224
Published
August 25, 2020
Capital of Silicon Valley
When analysts predicted the residential real estate market would collapse, the opposite happened. Both builders and existing home sellers saw demand surge well past pre-slowdown levels. In San Jose and across the country, new home purchase applications climbed nearly 40% vs. the prior year, and existing home sales posted a record-setting monthly gain of nearly 25%. The market did not just recover. It accelerated.
You know how it sometimes feels like every headline about real estate is either doom or hype? And then you try to figure out what is actually happening in your own neighborhood, and the picture gets even murkier? A lot of buyers and sellers in San Jose are dealing with exactly that right now.
But here is the part most people have not stopped to think about yet: what if the window you were waiting to open has already been open for a while, and you just did not know it?
What Does Your Housing Situation Actually Look Like Right Now?
Are you renting and watching your monthly payment climb while your equity stays at zero? Are you sitting on a home you have been meaning to sell, waiting for the “right time”? Or are you somewhere in between, not sure whether the market is with you or against you?
Take a second to honestly answer that. Because where you are right now matters more than any headline.
Have you ever stopped to think about what it costs you each month to stay exactly where you are? Not just in dollars, but in options. In flexibility. In the equity you are either building or not building.
What Builders & the Data Are Actually Telling You
Trend #1: Builder Confidence Reaches Historic Highs
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index hit its highest reading in the survey’s 35-year history. Applications for new home purchases with builders came in roughly 39% higher vs. the prior year. That is not a blip. That is a structural signal that buyer demand was running well ahead of what most economists had modeled. For someone considering new construction in the San Jose area, that kind of builder confidence matters because it tells you what the professionals who build homes for a living actually believe about where demand is headed.
Trend #2: Existing Home Sales Shatter Expert Forecasts
The National Association of Realtors released an Existing Home Sales Report showing a month-over-month increase of 24.7%, setting a record for the category. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had projected a 14.2% increase. The actual number nearly doubled that forecast. Year-over-year, home sales were up 8.7%. When even the experts get surprised to the upside by that wide a margin, it is worth asking yourself: what were you expecting the market to do, and how does that compare to what it actually did?
Trend #3: Remote Work Is Reshaping Buyer Demand
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, noted that the housing market moved well past the recovery phase and into what realtors agree looks like a full boom. The shift toward remote work created a secondary wave of demand as existing homeowners searched for larger spaces. That secondary demand, Yun suggested, would carry well into the following year. If you have been in a home that no longer fits how you live and work, how long have you been dealing with that? And what is that friction actually costing you every single day?
Trend #4: Recovery Index Confirms the Rebound Is Real
The Housing Market Recovery Index from realtor.com posted a reading of 104.8, meaning the market was performing better than it had before the slowdown began. The pre-crisis peak of the index was 106.5. Crossing back above 100 on that index is not a minor milestone. It means the underlying conditions, including buyer traffic, listing prices, and time on market, had not just recovered. They had surpassed the baseline. Can you see how that changes the framing from “waiting for recovery” to “recovering is already behind us”?
Trend #5: Low Rates and Housing Focus Are Driving Buyer Traffic
NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke noted that low interest rates combined with a sharper cultural focus on the importance of housing were pushing buyer traffic to levels not seen before. When rates are favorable and inventory is tight, the gap between what buyers can afford and what sellers can capture tends to compress quickly. In a market like San Jose, where property values and buyer competition have historically been intense, that combination of low rates and high demand deserves careful attention from anyone sitting on the sidelines.
What Happens If Nothing Changes for You?
Here is a question worth sitting with. If you keep your housing situation exactly the same for the next three to five years, where does that leave you? Not in terms of the market. In terms of your life. Your space. Your monthly cash flow. Your net worth.
What would it mean for you if, during that same window, someone else in San Jose locked in a fixed monthly payment and started building equity while you were still writing rent checks that built nothing for you?
That is not a hypothetical designed to pressure you. It is just a question worth answering honestly.
What Builders & Brokers Are Saying About What Comes Next
Based on what both builders and the broader real estate data are showing, the market is not waiting for permission to move. New construction starts were projected to land close to the prior year’s numbers, despite a major economic disruption cutting into building activity earlier in the year. Realtors agree that both new and existing home segments posted gains that outpaced year-ago levels.
For someone in your situation, whether you are considering San Jose homes for sale in the new construction or resale segment, the picture looks meaningfully different than it did even a few months ago.
The question is not whether the market moved. It clearly did. The question is whether that movement is working for you or around you.
Does that distinction make sense? Because it matters quite a bit depending on which side of it you are on.
If you are starting to wonder whether this could be the right time to have a real conversation about your options, that is worth exploring. Not a pitch. Not a commitment. Just a straightforward look at where you are and where you want to be. Timothy Alston, Broker (DRE# 01328224), is available for exactly that kind of conversation at (408) 207-4593.
Schools in San Jose
Aegis School Excellence Index · 2024-25 performance data
Serving districts: San Jose Unified SD, Alum Rock Union Elementary SD, Berryessa Union SD, Cambrian SD, Campbell Union SD (partial), East Side Union High SD, Evergreen Elementary SD, Franklin-McKinley SD, Luther Burbank SD, Moreland SD, Mount Pleasant SD, Oak Grove SD, Orchard SD, Union SD. School district boundaries can change; please verify current enrollment boundaries and program offerings directly with the school district.
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Broker · DRE# 01328224
Aegis Luxury Real Estate
Harvard Business School Online, Certified Master Negotiation
23+ Years Silicon Valley Real Estate Experience
Retired Military Veteran
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The data relating to real estate for sale on this display comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange program of the MLSListings™ MLS system. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Aegis Luxury Real Estate are marked with the Internet Data Exchange icon and detailed information about them includes the names of the listing brokers and listing agents.
Based on information from the MLSListings MLS as of June 10, 2026. All data, including all measurements and calculations of area, is obtained from various sources and has not been, and will not be, verified by broker or MLS. All information should be independently reviewed and verified for accuracy. Properties may or may not be listed by the office/agent presenting the information.
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Aegis Luxury Real Estate · Timothy Alston, Broker, DRE# 01328224 · 10080 N. Wolfe Rd Ste SW3-200, Cupertino CA 95014 · (408) 207-4593
Last updated: July 03, 2026 | Data reflects July 2026 MLS statistics
