The Hidden Housing Market Myth Costing San Jose Buyers
Timothy Alston | Broker
Aegis Luxury Real Estate · DRE# 01328224
Published
June 24, 2024
Capital of Silicon Valley
The San Jose housing market is not crashing, cooling dramatically, or heading for a repeat of past corrections. Expert forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Realtors point to moderate price growth, slightly lower mortgage rates, and steady home sales volume ahead. If you have been waiting for prices to drop before making a move, understanding what is actually ahead in this market forecast could change your calculus.
You know how it goes. You watch the headlines, you wait for a clearer signal, and meanwhile the calendar keeps moving. A lot of buyers and sellers in San Jose are sitting in exactly that holding pattern right now. But here is the part most people have not stopped to think about yet: waiting for the perfect moment might actually be the most expensive decision you make.
So before you decide to wait, it is worth asking yourself one honest question. What are you actually waiting for?
What Does the Housing Market Actually Look Like Right Now?
Take a moment to think about your current situation. Are you renting and watching your monthly payment climb? Are you a homeowner who has been reluctant to list because you are not sure what comes next? Or are you somewhere in between, ready to move but unsure whether the timing makes sense?
Whatever your situation, the housing market right now is not the chaotic environment from a few years ago. Price growth has moderated. Inventory has ticked up compared to recent years. And mortgage rates, while still elevated, are widely forecast to ease somewhat in the months ahead.
Does that match what you expected to hear?
Home Prices: What the Forecast Actually Says
Seven of the most closely watched forecasting sources in the industry are pointing in the same direction: home prices will continue to rise, just at a more measured pace than during the pandemic surge.
Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, put it plainly. She noted that prices are going to keep moving up, and the core reason is persistent low inventory. There simply are not enough homes available to meet buyer demand, and that gap keeps upward pressure on values.
In the San Jose real estate market, that inventory constraint is particularly sharp. Average days on market for well-priced homes in Santa Clara County remains well below national norms, and buyer demand consistently outpaces available listings in most price ranges.
Here is a question worth sitting with. If prices are forecast to keep climbing, even at a slower rate, what does another twelve months of waiting actually cost you in real dollars on a home at your target price point?
Mortgage Rates and What’s Ahead for Buyers
Mortgage rates have been one of the biggest sources of hesitation over the past two years. And that hesitation is understandable. But here is what the market forecast from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and NAR all suggest: rates are expected to ease modestly going forward.
Even a half-point drop in your mortgage rate can translate to hundreds of dollars per month on a purchase in this price range. Have you ever run the numbers on what that difference looks like over the life of a loan?
For sellers, a rate decrease matters in a different way. When borrowing becomes slightly more accessible, more qualified buyers come off the sidelines. That means more competition for your home, which typically supports both faster sales and stronger offers. If rate anxiety has been keeping you from listing, this part of the market forecast is worth knowing.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, pointed to three forces converging: job growth, more stable mortgage rates, and sellers who have been waiting finally choosing to list. That combination points toward modestly higher transaction volume ahead.
Home Sales Volume: Steady Ground or Missed Opportunity?
The consensus across Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR puts total home sales volume for this period at roughly five million transactions, a slight increase from the prior year. That is not a dramatic surge, but it is movement in a positive direction.
What that number means for you depends entirely on which side of the transaction you are on. For buyers exploring San Jose homes for sale, modestly increasing inventory alongside steady demand means more options without the bidding war intensity of 2021 and 2022. For sellers, it means a market that is still healthy enough to support strong outcomes, especially with proper positioning and pricing strategy.
Here is the consequence question no one likes to ask themselves. What happens if nothing changes in your situation over the next three to five years? If you keep renting, if you keep waiting, if you keep watching the housing market from the outside, where does that leave you financially and personally?
That is not a pressure question. It is an honest one. And the answer is worth knowing before you decide.
What Would Change If You Moved Forward?
Think about what it would mean to lock in a monthly housing payment that does not change year over year, while home equity builds quietly in the background. Think about what it would mean to finally stop watching the San Jose market from a distance and actually participate in it.
The data from this market forecast points to continued appreciation, slightly improving rate conditions, and stable transaction volume. None of that is a guarantee. But it does paint a picture that is meaningfully different from the one many people are holding in their heads, the picture of a market about to collapse or correct sharply.
If the numbers actually support moving forward, would you want to know that? If a straightforward conversation about your specific situation revealed a clearer path than you expected, would that be worth thirty minutes of your time?
Timothy Alston, licensed Broker at Aegis Luxury Real Estate, works with buyers and sellers navigating the San Jose market every day. No pitch. No pressure. Just an honest look at where you are and where you want to be. Reach out at (408) 207-4593 and let the conversation start there.
Schools in San Jose
Aegis School Excellence Index · 2024-25 performance data
Serving districts: San Jose Unified SD, Alum Rock Union Elementary SD, Berryessa Union SD, Cambrian SD, Campbell Union SD (partial), East Side Union High SD, Evergreen Elementary SD, Franklin-McKinley SD, Luther Burbank SD, Moreland SD, Mount Pleasant SD, Oak Grove SD, Orchard SD, Union SD. School district boundaries can change; please verify current enrollment boundaries and program offerings directly with the school district.
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Broker · DRE# 01328224
Aegis Luxury Real Estate
Harvard Business School Online, Certified Master Negotiation
23+ Years Silicon Valley Real Estate Experience
Retired Military Veteran
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The data relating to real estate for sale on this display comes in part from the Internet Data Exchange program of the MLSListings™ MLS system. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Aegis Luxury Real Estate are marked with the Internet Data Exchange icon and detailed information about them includes the names of the listing brokers and listing agents.
Based on information from the MLSListings MLS as of July 18, 2026. All data, including all measurements and calculations of area, is obtained from various sources and has not been, and will not be, verified by broker or MLS. All information should be independently reviewed and verified for accuracy. Properties may or may not be listed by the office/agent presenting the information.
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Aegis Luxury Real Estate · Timothy Alston, Broker, DRE# 01328224 · 10080 N. Wolfe Rd Ste SW3-200, Cupertino CA 95014 · (408) 207-4593
Last updated: July 18, 2026 | Data reflects July 2026 MLS statistics
