![Is It Still a Seller's Market? Here's What the Data Says. Remember a few years back when sellers held all the power and buyers were stuck offering way over asking or waiving inspections just to get a chance at the house? In many markets, those days are behind us. While it’s going to vary by area, more metros are slowly shifting to favor buyers, and the market is starting to look a lot more like a two-way street again. And that balance is something we haven’t had in a while. Whether you're buying or selling, here's what you need to know about what's changing and what it means for your move. The Most Buyer-Friendly Market in YearsThe national data tells an interesting story right now. According to Realtor.com: "The national housing market is balanced but gradually loosening as the cycle moves in a more buyer-friendly direction . . ." That’s because, over the past few years, more and more metros have been flipping back to more buyer-friendly terms as inventory’s grown. And when you zoom in on the latest Realtor.com data for the top 50 metro markets over time, the trend becomes really clear (see graph below). Back in 2021, almost all major metros were seller's markets. By the end of 2025, only 1 in 3 still favored sellers. That's an obvious shift. And that changes how the market is going to feel for everyone. Sellers shouldn’t still expect 2021 conditions, but neither should buyers. At least, not generally speaking. It’s Not the Same Story EverywhereThat said, who has the power ultimately depends on where you live. While more metros are leaning buyer-friendly lately, there are still plenty of strong seller's markets right now, too. It really comes down to how much housing supply and demand there is in your area. And that varies enormously by region. Sun Belt cities like Austin, Tampa, and San Antonio saw major building booms in recent years, giving buyers more options and more negotiating room. Meanwhile, cities in the Northeast and Midwest – think Rochester, Hartford, and Buffalo – didn't see that same wave, so inventory stayed tight and competition stayed fierce. As Jeff Ostrowski, Housing Analyst at Bankrate, explains: “The formerly hot Sun Belt markets have cooled, while the Northeast and Midwest have stayed hot. The big driver here is construction activity. The softest markets now [have] experienced big booms that spurred new building, and that has led to a large supply of new and existing homes on the market in those places.” Practical Advice for Your MoveTo find out who has the power in your local market, talk to an agent. Because knowing what’s happening locally is going to be the key to setting the right strategy for your move. If the market is working in your favor, great. Lean in and use it to your benefit. But if it’s not, all hope isn’t lost. Your agent can help you figure out how to approach any market. Here's some practical advice if there’s a mismatch between your goal and local market conditions. If you're buying in a seller's market: - Get pre-approved before you start shopping. It shows sellers you're serious. - Be ready to act fast when the right home hits the market. - Consider offering a quick closing date or flexible terms. - Work closely with your agent to craft a competitive offer. If you're selling in a buyer's market: - Price it right from day one. Overpricing will cost you time and money. - Focus on curb appeal and staging to stand out in areas with more inventory. - Be open to offering incentives, like covering closing costs or a home warranty. - Expect buyers to negotiate and be ready to be flexible. Bottom LineRight now, local markets are moving in very different directions. And your strategy as a buyer or seller should reflect your market. Is It Still a Seller's Market? Here's What the Data Says.](https://alstonhomes.com/wp-content/uploads/6-18-26-218x150.png "Is It Still a Seller’s Market? Here’s What the Data Says.")
Many people are sitting on the fence trying to decide if now’s the time to buy a home. Some are renters who have a strong desire to become homeowners but are unsure if buying right now makes sense. Others may be homeowners who are realizing that their current home no longer fits their changing needs.
To determine if they should buy now or wait another year, they both need to ask two simple questions:
- Do I think home values will be higher a year from now?
- Do I think mortgage rates will be higher a year from now?
Let’s shed some light on the answers to these questions.
Where will home prices be a year from now?
If you average the most recent projections from the major industry forecasters, the expectation is home prices will increase by 7.7%. Let’s take a house that’s valued today at $325,000 as an example.
If the buyer makes a 10% down payment ($32,500), they’ll end up borrowing $292,500 for their mortgage. Applying the projected rate of home price appreciation, that same house will cost $350,025 next year. With a 10% down payment ($35,003), they’d then have to borrow $315,022.
Therefore, as a result of rising home prices alone, a prospective buyer will have to put down an additional $2,503 and borrow an additional $22,523 just for waiting a year to make their move.
Where will mortgage rates be a year from now?
Today, mortgage rates are hovering around 3%. However, most experts believe they’ll rise as the economy continues to recover. Any increase in the mortgage rate will also increase a purchaser’s cost. Here are the forecasts for the first quarter of 2022 from four major entities:
- Freddie Mac – 3.5%
- Fannie Mae – 3.5%
- National Association of Realtors – 3.5%
- Mortgage Bankers Association – 3.9%
The projections average out to 3.6% among these four forecasts, a jump up from where they are today.
What does it mean to you if home values and mortgage rates increase?
A buyer will pay a lot more in mortgage payments each month if both of these variables increase. Assuming a buyer purchases a $325,000 home this year with a 30-year fixed-rate loan at 3% after making a 10% down payment, their monthly principal and interest payment would be $1,233.
That same home one year from now could be $350,025, and the mortgage rate could be 3.6% (based on the industry forecasts mentioned above). That monthly principal and interest payment, after putting down 10%, totals $1,432.
The difference in the monthly mortgage payment would be $199. That’s $2,388 more per year and $71,640 over the life of the loan.
Add to that the approximately $25,000 a house with a similar value would build in home equity this year as a result of home price appreciation, and the total net worth increase a purchaser could gain by buying this year is nearly $100,000. That’s a small fortune.
Bottom Line
When asking if they should buy a home, many potential buyers think of the nonfinancial benefits of owning a home. When asking when to buy, the financial benefits make it clear that doing so now is much more advantageous than waiting until next year.
